Babe's Eye View article

It’s getting clear that more and more politicians from the national down to the grassroots level are defecting to either the Nacionalista Party or the Liberal Party. People can expect more surprises now that the period for the filing of certificates of candidacy has started. Political observers are predicting the 2010 presidential race to be a battle royale between the NP and the LP, reminiscent of the old days when elections were a two-way contest between the two oldest parties in the country.

From near-obscurity in the past, the NP has emerged as one of the most organized parties, forging strategic partnerships with various sectors to solidify its geographical and political presence. Ever since the late vice president Doy Laurel turned over the reins of leadership to Manny Villar, the party had painstakingly rebuilt its machinery to bring back the NP’s old prominence in Philippine politics.

It was in 2001 when Doy Laurel first approached Villar to join the NP. After an initial hesitation, Manny was finally sworn in as member and then formally elected as party president in February 2004, shortly after Laurel succumbed to cancer. Credit certainly goes to Villar for infusing new energy and direction into the party. As Nene Pimentel had claimed, the Nacionalista Party has the best political organization in the country today.

The Liberal Party is likewise gearing up, with Noynoy Aquino currently perceived as frontrunner in the race. But unlike the NP where members are solid behind the party leadership, the Liberals could be weighed down by a “top heavy leadership” torn by factional infighting, as Senator Ed Angara had commented. This perception was further underlined by Serge Osmeña’s very public disagreement over the inclusion of former NEDA chief Ralph Recto in the senatorial slate (plus reports that his cousin, Tommy Osmeña, has been designated as LP chairman in Cebu City), blasting the “mafia” within the party which kept him in the dark regarding these developments.

While former president Joseph Estrada is still considered popular among the masses, his candidacy could be hampered by legal issues, coupled by the growing perception that his time has passed. Some people from the camps of Erap and Noynoy are working to convince the former president to throw in his support to Noynoy. Estrada though is hesitant because many people around Noynoy belong to the civil society group that plotted his ouster in 2001. Given the rapidly changing political landscape, Joseph Estrada will eventually have to make a decision whether he will support Noynoy Aquino or Manny Villar.

No doubt the NP and the LP have fielded formidable tandems who could give Filipino voters very good choices. Manny and Loren Legarda are counting on the support of overseas Filipino workers, the masa and the middle class. As Loren had pointed out, she and Manny share many things in common: their humble beginnings, and the fact that both worked hard and had to overcome a lot of difficulties to become successful. Simply put, they know the struggles of ordinary people. Their partnership, Loren said, augurs a new beginning and a better future for Filipinos as both have proven their leadership and management skills—things necessary to steer the country towards a new direction.

Although the Nationalist People’s Coalition is not endorsing any presidential candidate, Loren’s decision to forge a tactical alliance with Villar has the blessings of the NPC leadership. Former Ambassador Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco has made it clear he wants to leave decisions to younger members of the party. Danding (or ECJ) had said many times that he would like to stay away from politics and concentrate on his business. A week ago, he left for San Francisco for a medical procedure, which sparked rumors all over Metro Manila that he was very sick. I’m told the medical procedure is a success, and his return early last Friday on a PAL flight from San Francisco dispelled all the rumors. ECJ is now planning to leave for the Christmas holidays and go to his farm in Australia.

While the NP team traces their beginnings from the masa and middle class, the tandem of Noynoy and Mar are from the landed elite, and both belong to prominent political clans. Nevertheless, they are successfully projecting themselves as candidates untainted by corruption, sparking an upsurge of anticipation with their message of change and reform. But one potential setback is the creeping disappointment from people who feel that their message is being diluted by the presence of defectors perceived to be traditional politicians or “trapos.”

A large number of the so-called elite have been quietly donating to the LP while a number of wealthy businessmen are supporting Villar. Some find it quite ironic though that Mar and Noynoy, who belong to the wealthiest clans in the country, are resorting to the “piso-piso” contributions from the poor.

In any case, both camps will be facing a lot of issues and controversies as the election season continues to heat up. While Manny is still hounded by the C5 controversy, it looks like this will soon be favorably resolved in the Senate. Noynoy for his part has to contend with the issue of Hacienda Luisita and downplay the impression among farmers and other cause-oriented groups that he is “not very friendly.”

But at the end of the day, the party with the most organized machinery and the team who can convince voters that they present real hope and change for this country will most likely emerge victorious in 2010. Most likely, it will either be the NP or the LP that will win just like the good old days.